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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd